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Points Won't Come Easy

2011-06-11T22:19:20Z

Mia Dall Under 187 As game 5 flew over the number for the first time in the series this game looks to revert back to form and should settle well under the total as both teams play the biggest game since 2005. As both coaches warn their teams to not get into the penalty to early both defenses will make sure to not make the mistakes of game 5. Look for the pace of the game to be much slower and fast break points to be much less.

It's Going To Be A Slugfest

2011-06-09T23:03:16Z

Dall +1 This line has moved from when it opened at Dallas as minus 2- so a lot of money has down on the Heat. Nowitzky says he feels great for the game so most people are playing the zig zag theory of the Heat rebounding with James being extra motivated after the worst game of his playoff career. I still like the Mavs to win this game in a back and forth physical game that will come down to the wire with a Dallas win. With all the talk about James people need to realize that the Heat's real killer is Wade. This series proves it, when Lebron hides Wade wants the ball and will usually score in many different ways. If James wants the ball in a important spot tonight it could very well hurt his team because of his reliance on his long jump shots. Once a series gets to this point the teams are really getting to know each other and are trying to exploit weakness and play to their strengths. the coaches become more and more important and we will see the Mavs have a big edge come crunch time.

Must Win For Dallas

2011-06-07T21:54:29Z

Dall -3 It goes without saying that if Dallas loses tonight they might as well kiss the title goodbye because there is no way they can dig out of a 1-3 hole heading back to Miami for the final two games. The Mavs did have a good chance to win game three but Wade was red hot from the perimeter and came up short at the end. Dallas will continue to try to score in transition and when in the half court swing the ball to the open man when they double on Dirk. The Heat will continue to exploit match ups on offense and try to attack the basket and use their quickness to double Nowitske then cover the shooter on defense. I look for this game to stay close until the fourth when Dallas pulls away with free throws.

The NBA Is A Thinking Mans Game

2011-06-05T19:46:28Z

Miam +2- In the series summary I talked about how I thought that Dallas has a higher basketball IQ, and that surely showed in game two. Give the Mavs credit though because they are a team that knows that 7 minutes can be more than enough time to make up a double digit deficit and that is exactly what they did in the biggest comeback in finals history. Tonight look for the Heat to play with wire to wire focus and again to score off turn overs which has been important for them in the first two games. Dallas is still having a hard time rebounding and will need to keep the totals close and get more points in transition if they want to head into the fourth with a lead. This has the smell of a game that should come down to the buzzer so I like Miami with the points.

Rebound Game For The Mavericks

2011-06-02T23:29:28Z

Dall +4- When I say rebound I do mean rebound because to me it's the most important part of the game and Dallas in game one got killed on the boards trying to limit penetration to James and Wade. That and shooting 37 percent equals a loss almost all of the time in the NBA but the Mavs still hung around until late in the fourth and had a chance to cover up until the end. Tonight I think they will have a good chance to pull out a win by shooting better and boxing out.

Dallas Gets the Nod

2011-06-01T00:22:31Z

Dallas +160 for the Series I like the Mavs in this series and while I might be one of the only ones outside of Texas who does I think Dallas has the higher basketball IQ and the better starting five and bench to take the trophy home. Look for the Heat to have as many match up problems as the Mavs do and will have a difficult time covering all the shooters. The Mavs will try to force jump shots out of the big three and limit the pick and roll.

Dall+4- Look for the Mavs to get a quick start tonight and score in transition. If Lebron covers Dirk for any time at all it will take away from his offense and could put him in foul trouble so it will be by committe and with double teams.

The Safe Play Is The Under

2011-05-26T23:01:08Z

Chic Miami under 180 The more I watch this series the more i'm amazed when these teams reach 80 and if it wasn't for the first game having the Bulls grab 19 offensive rebounds and the last game going going into OT, all of these games except one that crept over by a bucket would have gone under.

The Life Of a Handicapper Can Be Tough

2011-05-25T22:16:53Z

The last three games I have gone 0 for 3 against the spread and each one of them was a heart breaker that guys talk about much later over drinks when they are moaning and whining about how unfair the betting game can be. Believe me I have seen it all over the last 25 years or so and these last 3 games don't surprise me after I was really having a nice run over the last 15 games. An O/U that trickles over by a bucket, a young team that gives up a 15 point lead with 5 minutes to go, and a 62 win squad led by a MVP who can't score a bucket to save their season, it will all cost you physically and mentally. What I have learned over the years is that you can't let it

affect how you break down the game and how you handicap. When you do, you play different and go into a serious tailspin. So lets try and break the cycle tonight and get back to my winning ways as these series are almost over and we head to the big one.

Dall -6- I know the Thunder will be playing like they mean it tonight but watching Durant and the the body language of the rest of the team after their huge collapse the other night I think that the Mavs put them out of their misery tonight. The Thunder will have to withstand a Dallas team ready to pour it on and try to blow it open like they did against the Lakers and I don't think they have the mental toughness to withstand the atmosphere they will encounter.

Huge Game For The Bulls

2011-05-24T21:51:41Z

Chic +5 Yes everybody has been talking about how the Heat are going to the finals and that the Bulls can't score enough or stop the big three on a consistent basis to beat Miami but two games don't make a series and I think the Bulls will play very well tonight and give themselves a great chance to win. their season comes down to tonight as climbing out of a 3-1 hole is almost next to impossible so look for a big time effort from Chicago's starting five and the bench which gives them an edge. They win tonight and the talking heads are whistling a different tune.

Thunder Season On The Line

2011-05-23T21:56:34Z

Okl City -4 The Thunder can't lose this one or they won't be able to dig out of that big of a hole against such a quality team like Dallas. Look for Coach Brooks to make hard choices tonight like he did in game 2 if Westbrook has a hard time realizing that he has one of the top 5 players in the world on the floor with him an can' get him the ball. Maynor might get important minutes but I see that being a good thing since Westbrook is hurting his team in crunch time and doesn't realize it. The Thunder should not expect another poor shooting night from Nowitski but they are doing a much better job of making him work for his shots. Look for the Thunder to pull away in the fourth quarter.

Grind It Out Pace Tonight

2011-05-22T21:20:59Z

Chic Miam under 179- I thought this number would be lower but because game one trickled over in the Bulls blow out win the odds makers are sticking the number here for now, which I think is to high. Both these rugged defenses should take care of the boards and the 3 point line tonight and the pace will push this game well under the number.

Game Three In Oklahoma City

2011-05-21T15:54:43Z

Dall +2- This series will be one of adjustments and tonight it will be the Mavs turn to make theirs to what happened in game two. Look for the Mavs to deal with the front posting of Dirk and run more pick and rolls for him while also working on defensive sets for Durant. The Thunder has a problem with Westbrook having a meltdown and being benched and will hope that he can be mature enough to bounce back and be the the big time player they need him to be. The Mavs have a great shot to win tonight.

Can Dallas Stay Red Hot

2011-05-19T21:29:45Z

Okl City +5- I thought the Thunder really hung in and had a chance to cover even though they could have played better in a couple of areas and positions. Look for adjustments from this young team and for Westbrook to settle down to make this game closely contested. Its very hard to bet against the Mavs who have covered 11 straight in the post season but i'm going with the Thunder tonight.

Heat Need To Take Care Of The Glass

2011-05-18T22:19:00Z

Miam +2- Miami got crushed on the boards in game one and when you give up 19 offensive rebounds you will get beat 95 percent of the time. The Heat made the choice to go small in the game and know that the Bulls are a very good rebounding team so what are they going to do for game two I wonder. I think they go bigger and take care to not give up the easy second and third shots off offensive rebounds. The Heat has to be careful not to mess with their chemistry at this critical point of the the season with lineup changes and go with what has got them here, I love Haslem but now is not the time to get him into NBA shape. The Heat will play much better tonight, I think they will play with the lead for most of it and come away with a win.

Dirk Durant Shoot Out

2011-05-17T22:24:00Z

Dallas-240 As well as the Thunder have been playing I don't think they match up with the Mavericks. The Mavs style really does not bode well for the Thunder. Earlier I thought that the Thunder would advance to the finals but now with the way the Mavs are playing and the challenges that the Mavs pose with their lineup and deep bench, plus the addition of a very good center I think they are over matched.

Dall -6 The Mavs will be a little rusty tonight but the Thunder will be a little fatigued so in my eyes its advantage to the Mavs. I think the Mavs jump on them tonight and spread the Thunders defense out while limiting the effectiveness of Westbrook. I think Durant will average his 25 in this series but the key for Dallas is Westbrook, if they stop him they win easily.

One Begins One Ends

2011-05-15T17:31:00Z

Okl City -6 Most of us thought that this was going to be a good series but who would have thought it would turn into such a treat. It doesn't seem like any lead is safe for either team and both teams have shown they can bounce back from disappointing losses. The truth is though, and it will be proven today, is that the Thunder has more under the hood. Add that to home court and you get a win and a cashed ticket. Look for Durant to go for at least 35.

Miami -190 in the series Yes I know that I have said that the Bulls were going to win the East but now after watching both these teams up this point I have to go with the Heat even laying almost 2 to 1. I like the fact that Miami has the defensive skills to deal with Rose and has now turned the corner on the offensive end to deal with the Bulls defense. For me the Heat cause more match up problems than the other way around and are better able to handle winning low scoring close games.

Miam +2 It's going to be a physical first game to this series with the Heat sending Rose a early message about coming into the lane. I love the fact that the Heat are going to the rim a lot more now and taking a lot less jumpers, as long as they are doing this they will break defenses down and get easy baskets or free throws while getting opposing teams into foul trouble.

It Will BE A Barn Burner Tonight

2011-05-13T22:34:00Z

Memph _-1- Don't get me wrong, I still think that the Thunder will win the series and take on the Mavs in the Western Championship but I think they will lose tonight to a highly motivated Grizzly team. Memphis will have had time to get their legs back and Gasol and Randolph should have big games if they run the offense. Look for Memphis to concentrate on Westbrook and Durant and try to limit their scoring.

Hawks Face Elimination

2011-05-12T21:47:00Z

Atl +3- The Hawks play in the biggest game of the season tonight and can't afford to have a fourth quarter like the last game. Atlanta has that they can go toe to toe with the Bulls but need to play their game and their tempo and not let the Bulls dictate terms. If Atlanta take good shots out of the double team they should be able to keep it close with a chance to win tonight.

Look for the Heat to Close Out Boston Tonight

2011-05-11T17:26:00Z

Mia -7- Now that the Heat smell blood and are back home I think the Celtics won't be able to win or cover tonight against a Miami team that is playing with a purpose. Even if Rondo was healthy the Celtics would be hard pressed to hang around with the Heat but now that he is only 70-80 percent they don't match up at all.

Memp +6- I like the Grizzlies to keep this game close. They have shown that they can put bad losses behind them and they know how big of a game tonight is so look for them to play well and give the Thunder all they can handle. This series has been awesome so far with both teams winning on each others court, this game could very well come down to the last shot.

Bulls Rebound Tonight

2011-05-10T22:25:00Z

Chic -8- Atlanta has surprised me in the post season so far. I don't think many people outside of Atlanta would have predicted the upset over the Magic and now the Hawks playing so well against the Bulls but here they are. I think tonight we will see a Bulls team that will force the Hawks into tough shots that let them get into the open court for lay ups and open three pointers. Look for Rose to have a big game slashing to the basket drawing fouls on the Hawks bigs and running away with this game.